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Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) was a program of the Office of Incisive Analysis (OIA) at the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA).cite-ref-official-1-0[1]cite-ref-whitehouse-2-0[2] The program ran from June 2010 until June 2015.cite-ref-3[3]

• History

• Goals and methods

• Partners

• References

• External links

The broad program announcement for ACE was published on June 30, 2010.cite-ref-4[4] ACE funded the Aggregative Contingent Estimation System (ACES) website and interface on July 15, 2011.cite-ref-gcn-5-0[5] They funded The Good Judgment Project some time around July 2011.cite-ref-6[6] ACE has been covered in The Washington Post''cite-ref-washpo-7-0[7] and Wired Magazine.cite-ref-8[8] The program was concluded by late 2015.cite-ref-9[9] The program manager was future IARPA director Jason Gaverick Matheny.cite-ref-prensky2012-10-0[10]

The official website says that the goals of ACE are "to dramatically enhance the accuracy, precision, and timeliness of intelligence forecasts for a broad range of event types, through the development of advanced techniques that elicit, weight, and combine the judgments of many intelligence analysts."cite-ref-official-1-1[1] The website claims that ACE seeks technical innovations in the following areas:cite-ref-official-1-2[1]

• efficient elicitation of probabilistic judgments, including conditional probabilities for contingent events

• mathematical aggregation of judgments by many individuals, based on factors that may include: past performance, expertise, cognitive style, metaknowledge, and other attributes predictive of accuracy

• effective representation of aggregated probabilistic forecasts and their distributions.

There is a fair amount of research funded by grants made by the IARPA ACE program.cite-ref-11[11]

The ACE has collaborated with partners who compete in its forecasting tournaments. Their most notable partner is The Good Judgment Project from Philip E. Tetlock et al.cite-ref-project-12-0[12] (winner of a 2013 ACE tournament)cite-ref-washpo-7-1[7] ACE also partnered with the ARA to create the Aggregative Contingent Estimation System (ACES).cite-ref-gcn-5-1[5]

Data from ACE is fed into another program, called Forecasting Science and Technology (ForeST), which partners with SciCast from George Mason University.cite-ref-13[13]

cite-note-official-11. ↑ citerefmathenyrieberMatheny, Jason; Rieber, Steve. "Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE)". Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity. Retrieved May 6, 2014.

cite-note-whitehouse-22. ↑ "Aggregative Contingent Estimation" (PDF). Office of the Director of National Intelligence, United States. Retrieved May 6, 2014.

cite-note-33. ↑ citerefharbert2015Harbert, Tam (2015-10-19). "IARPA's New Director Wants You to Surprise Him". IEEE Spectrum. Retrieved 2016-03-31.

cite-note-44. ↑ "Aggregative Contingent Estimation System". Federal Business Opportunities. June 30, 2010. Retrieved May 6, 2014.

cite-note-gcn-55. ↑ citerefhickey2011Hickey, Kathleen (July 15, 2011). "Intell site tests crowdsourcing's ability to predict future". GCN. Retrieved May 6, 2014.

cite-note-66. ↑ "The idea behind the Good Judgment Project". The Good Judgment Project. July 27, 2011. Archived from the original on May 6, 2014. Retrieved May 5, 2014.

cite-note-washpo-77. ↑ citerefhorowitz2013Horowitz, Michael (November 26, 2013). "Good judgment in forecasting international affairs (and an invitation for season 3)". The Washington Post. Retrieved May 5, 2014.

cite-note-88. ↑ citerefdrummond2010Drummond, Katie (April 22, 2010). "Can Algorithms Find the Best Intelligence Analysts?". Wired Magazine. Retrieved May 6, 2014.

cite-note-99. ↑ citerefcorrin2015Corrin, Amber (2015-09-23). "IARPA's high-stakes intelligence experiment". C4ISR & Networks. Archived from the original on 2017-06-21. Retrieved 2016-03-31.

cite-note-prensky2012-1010. ↑ citerefmarc-prensky2012Marc Prensky (7 August 2012). Brain Gain: Technology and the Quest for Digital Wisdom. St. Martin's Press. p. 260. ISBN 978-1-137-09317-2. The ACE program manager is Jason Matheny

cite-note-1111. ↑ "Google Scholar listing of research funded by IARPA ACE". Retrieved May 6, 2014.

cite-note-project-1212. ↑ "The Project". The Good Judgment Project. Archived from the original on May 6, 2014. Retrieved May 5, 2014.

cite-note-1313. ↑ citerefmathenyMatheny, Jason. "Forecasting Science & Technology (ForeST)". Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity. Retrieved May 6, 2014.

• Official website